Gambling

Corso contradicts himself
by Doctor J

Lee Corso posted the following Q&A in his ESPN column:

"If USC played Miami today at a neutral site, who would win? David Blosser, Los Angeles, Calif.

I don't normally deal with hypotheticals, but I would go with USC. The Trojans have more firepower at every position, great athletes, a tough defense and a terrific quarterback in Carson Palmer. I think it would
come down to the quarterbacks, Palmer vs. Ken Dorsey, and while Dorsey would probably win that battle, USC would probably win the game."

Think about that last sentence. "(1) I think it would come down to the quarterbacks, Palmer vs. Ken Dorsey, (2) and while Dorsey would probably win that battle, USC would probably win the game."

First of all, (1) and (2) can't both be true. If USC could win the game without Palmer winning the battle against Dorsey, then the game wouldn't come down to the QB battle. And if the game came down to the QB battle
and Dorsey won that battle, Miami would win the game. Corso contradicts himself in a single sentence.

Second, Dorsey ain't better than Palmer. It's not even close. Dorsey's numbers are well below Palmer's with a much easier schedule, his form and arm are mediocre at best, while Palmer's form and arm are first
rate.

Miami wins because of superior athletes across the board and a moderate to easy schedule, not because of Dorsey. The good thing about Dorsey is that he doesn't make mistakes, but neither did Trent Dilfer
when he won the Superbowl with the Ravens, and no one was under the impression that Dilfer was a great QB. If Miami had Palmer at QB, they would have won some of the close games they had by 30+.

Third, perhaps Dorsey would win the battle if he were surrounded by better players on offense than Palmer, but (1) that isn't clear and (2) Lee undermines that in the first sentence, where he praises USC's athletes.

Only a pundit-extraordinaire like Lee Corso could manage to contradict himself AND add a moronic assertion for good measure, within a single
sentence. And just think: the idiot who wrote that sentence is more famous and makes more money than you and I.

Dorsey couldn't hold Palmer's jock, and it would be a travesty if the Heisman went to Dorsey. We all already know the Heisman is a joke, but a Dorsey win would reaffirm that fact all the more.

Why Baseball Is Getting To Be a Joke, and Why the Red Sox Might Save the Sport from Itself

By Pete Hisey


I’m not bashing baseball here. I love the sport. But every year, the owners threaten to shut the game down because the greedy players are driving them into bankruptcy, and every year they run out and throw fortunes at sluggers with degenerative hip diseases, pitchers with arms hanging by a frayed tendon, and journeyman middle infielders who can be relied upon to deliver, oh, 20 or 30 RBI.



The ultimate in this idiocy was the Chicago moron whose name may not be spoken, the owner of the White Sox and the Bulls, forcing a strike over the ludicrous contracts being shoveled out, then signing ALBERT BELLE to a billion-dollar guaranteed contract a month later. I guess it was that elusive good-citizenship intangible that made him do it.



This year, the owners are getting even sillier than usual. This is perhaps the thinnest free agent crop in a decade, and you’d think it would be a buyer’s market. But nooooooo! Two 37-year old pitchers are getting offers of $40 to $70 million, depending on who you believe, an immobile first-baseman with a bad back just got an offer of $115 million, a mediocre third baseman with a lifetime batting average just barely over .250 got $16 million, and if Reggie Jackson feels like pulling on a uniform, someone would hand him a few million too.



Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux have been two of the best pitchers in baseball for over a decade. Both are likely hall of famers. Both are model citizens. Neither is worth half what they are being offered. I won’t go into all the math and stuff, but the evidence is clear that normal pitchers decline rapidly after age 36. The handful of exceptions, like Seaver, Nolan Ryan, Phil Niekro, Warren Spahn and Randy Johnson, simply prove the rule. Sure, they are both likely to be useful for several more years. Sure, they are marquee attractions. But their best years are over, and for each of them to be chased by three to five teams offering more money than either made in his prime is a joke.



Jim Thome is a slightly better risk. He’s only 31, and while hitters tend to decline at about that age, he hit 50 home runs last year, despite a slow start and chronic back problems. Yes. Chronic back problems. This is a great guy. A great hitter. He has chronic back problems. Yet the Phillies are trying to talk him into taking $90 million to $115 million of their money, apparently unaware that back problems are lethal to power hitters.



David Bell, an utter mediocrity, just got a fat contract from the same Phillies. Evidently, he shows up on time and does his job. Whoop.



It might be the very lack of depth of this bunch of free agents that is creating this effect. But I doubt it. The owners seem congenitally unable to keep their hands from writing checks. If ever there was a time to sit back, develop your younger players, think about the future, and bring some rationality to the market, this is it. Even George Steinbrenner, perhaps the most egregious overspender in baseball history, seems to have repented. He recently offered Raul Mondesi and Rondell White, plus $10 million cash, to the Rockies. For NOTHING. Not even a case of baseballs. Anything to get their bloated salaries off his books. Of course, he also appears to be ready to throw $100 million at a Japanese outfielder and a Cuban pitcher, neither of whom have ever played a minute in a major league game.



What I’m leading up to is this. If they’re tossing their money around on geriatric pitchers now, what will happen next year? And the year after? Because just about every terrific player in baseball could go onto the free agent market en masse. ESPN’s Peter Gammons just ran a list of the potential crop. And it is stunning.





Potential free agents at the end of the 2003 season

Kevin Milwood, Atl., RHP, 29*

Sidney Ponson, Bal., RHP, 27*

Bartolo Colon, Mon., RHP, 29*

Livan Hernandez, S.F., RHP, 29*

Kirk Rueter, S.F., LHP, 33*

Andy Pettitte, NYY, LHP, 32*

Pedro Astacio, NYM, RHP, 34*

Randy Johnson, Ari., LHP, 41*

Danny Graves, Cin., RHP, 31*

Keith Foulke, CWS, RHP, 31*

Kelvim Escobar, Tor., RHP, 28*

Scott Sullivan, Cin., RHP, 33*

Armando Benitez, NYM, RHP, 31*

Eddie Guardado, Min., LHP, 34*

Mike Williams, Pit., RHP, 34*

Javy Lopez, Atl., C, 33*

Luis Castillo, Fla., 2B, 29*

Fernando Vina, St. L., 2B, 35*

Craig Biggio, Hou., 2B, 38*

Miguel Tejada, Oak., SS, 28*

Rich Aurilia, S.F., SS, 33*

Roberto Alomar, NYM, 2B, 38*

Jose Cruz, Tor., 0F, 30*

Vladimir Guerrero, Mon., OF, 28*

Shannon Stewart, Tor., OF, 30*

Mike Cameron, Sea., 0F, 31*

* Opening Day age in 2004

Potential free agents at the end of the 2004 season

Kerry Wood, ChC, RHP, 28*

Matt Clement, ChC, RHP, 31*

Ryan Dempster, Cin., RHP, 28*

Odalis Perez, L.A., LHP, 27*

Javier Vazquez, Mon., RHP, 29*

Pedro Martinez, Bos., RHP, 34*

Derek Lowe, Bos., RHP, 31*

Curt Schilling, Ari., RHP, 38*

Matt Morris, St. L., RHP, 31*

Kris Benson, Pit., RHP, 30*

Russ Ortiz, S.F., RHP, 31*

Eric Milton, Min., LHP, 30*

Brad Radke, Min., RHP, 32*

Freddy Garcia, Sea., RHP, 29*

Scott Williamson, Cin., RHP, 29*

Bobby Howry, Bos., RHP, 32*

Jose Jimenez, Col., RHP, 32*

Braden Looper, Fla., RHP, 30*

Felix Rodriguez, S.F., RHP, 31*

Troy Percival, Ana., RHP, 36*

Robb Nen, S.F., RHP, 35*

Mariano Rivera, NYY, RHP, 35*

Jason Varitek, Bos., C, 33*

Paul Konerko, ChW, 1B, 29*

Derrek Lee, Fla., 1B, 30*

Richie Sexson, Mil., 1B, 30*

Carlos Delgado, Tor., 1B-DH, 32*

Jose Vidro, Mon., 2B, 31*

Mike Lowell, Fla., 3B, 31*

Corey Koskie, Min., 3B, 32*

Eric Chavez, Oak., 3B, 27*

Adrian Beltre, L.A., 3B, 26*

Aaron Boone, Cin., 3B, 32*

Troy Glaus, Ana., 3B, 28*

Cristian Guzman, Min., SS, 27*

Orlando Cabrera, Mon., SS, 30*

Nomar Garciaparra, Bos., SS, 32*

Trot Nixon, Bos., OF, 31*

Carlos Beltran, K.C., OF, 28*

J.D. Drew, St. L., OF, 29*

Magglio Ordonez, ChW, OF, 31*

Garret Anderson, Ana., OF, 33*

Geoff Jenkins, Mil., OF, 31*

* Opening Day age in 2005

(Source: ESPN.COM)



I can already hear Bud Selig and the rest reassuring us that having a DEEP free agent class will keep prices down, just like having a thin one was bound to keep prices down. These guys MUST be Republicans; they can make two entirely opposing arguments and absolutely believe both are true.

But in 2006, that creepy Selig will be back, explaining that baseball must gut the entire game to save it from the greedy players.

I am all for free enterprise. I back the players unwaveringly. They do something very special and should get what they can on the open market. But even I, commie that I am, can say that things have gone too far, and this situation is bad for baseball.

At present, there are literally dozens of top prospects stalled at AAA baseball, unable to compete for major league dollars, because people like Raul Mondesi are taking up roster spots because they have long-term guaranteed contracts. Or owners think a marquee name is vital to putting butts in the seats. And the hell with the long-term health of the franchise. Bud will make sure you can sell for top dollar, no matter how much of an idiot you are.

Teams are slashing their scouting and minor league development departments. Steinbrenner, always the rational, caring Boss, fired 25 secretaries and lopped off dental benefits to those lucky enough to retain their jobs, saving the equivalent of about 12 games of Mr. Mondesi’s efforts. After all, these people had only been there an average of 20 years. Sometimes I wish my keyboard had a “STRANGLE” key.

But, there does appear to be hope on the horizon and no thanks to Mr. Selig and his cohort of old-fashioned robber barons. I look to the Boston Red Sox. Yeah, those Red Sox.

Since the new owners, led by John Henry, took control this year, they have moved the right way every step. They approached and hired Billy Beane, the brightest and most creative general manager in baseball (and a left-wing punk rocker, guys….). Beane, unfortunately, reconsidered the offer, which would have jerked his salary from $200,000 to $2 million, because he wanted to remain close to his teenage daughter, who lives with her mother in California. The Red Sox even offered to let him work most of the week in California, but Beane, showing a grasp of ethics the Bush administration is probably laughing themselves sick over, decided that he would not be able to give enough attention to his job. He returned to the Oakland A’s, who did double his salary in gratitude.

Next, the Red Sox approached Bill James, and quickly tied him to a consultancy contract, to recommend trading and drafting strategies. James, for those who don’t know, is baseball’s most brilliant statistics freak, a man who says that teams have a wealth of statistical information at their disposal, but refuse to go by the evidence it provides. Just by way of example, he can tell you that your flashy shortstop who never makes an error just looks good because he makes eye-popping plays on balls other shortstops handle routinely. It’s called range factor, and it determines who is really helping your team and who is not.

Having missed out on Beane, the Sox then hired a young up and comer, a Beane clone, Theo Epstein. He is, like Beane and James, analytical and results driven. That this high-powered ownership of one of the sport’s most storied franchises would give a 28-year-old that kind of opportunity speaks volumes about the intelligence of this bunch. Nearly every other team would have insisted on an apprenticeship, so the guy could learn from some old baseball guy all the ideas that don’t work instead of bringing new ideas in.

And, while the Phillies and Mets and Yankees and Marlins and so on are throwing tens of millions of dollars at questionable investments, the Sox so far have made one move. The Devil Rays released a pitcher named Ryan Rupe. If you’ve never seen him pitch, this big, overpowering guy has great stuff. He just pitched for a pathetic team with outfielders who needed electric wheel chairs to play their positions, coupled with 16-year-old infielders who might be great players some day, but for now look at their gloves as fashion accessories. If Rupe can have his shattered confidence restored, and he is still very young, the Sox get a live young arm with tremendous upside for almost nothing. I expect to see them make other such moves in the near future.

I would add that the Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs seem to be headed in the same direction, and the Oakland and Seattle franchises have always been more or less in the same park in intelligence.

But taking one of baseball’s most bone-headed teams and turning it smart may do more to save baseball than anything else I can think of. Well, other than taking Bud Selig, David Glass and the Chicago moron whose name may not be spoken out for a Big Pussy cruise.


(Pete Hisey will never get over the Braves losing Tom Seaver due to tampering charges. Or the Sparky Lyle/Danny Cater trade. Don’t get him started.)